The Consequences of COVID-19 pandemic in India from a Military perspective

 The Consequences of COVID-19 pandemic in India from a Military perspective

The Situation

The world has been witnessing an unprecedented situation since the World War II. Never before in any documented history has mankind seen this sort of a viral outbreak. In Hindi this situation is often referred as ‘किट पतंगो का कराल’ that is ‘The Dreadful wrath of the Worms’. The NOVEL CORONA VIRUS (COVID-19) has wreaked havoc throughout the globe with more than 200 countries reporting positive cases. The scientific community is finding it hard to find an assured treatment or prevention in the form of a vaccine. Countries like US, France, Italy, Spain, China, Russia and the whole of Europe are under serious health emergencies and the authorities are crumbling under pressure. The health infrastructure has fallen down in most of the western European nations as the number of patients are outnumbering the beds in most cities. As of now the death toll has touched 70000 globally with Europe reporting around 70 percent of the global deaths. Asia is no better with Iran and China reporting around 3500 deaths each and India already piling up numbers.

Pic Credit:  ZHL India

The Threat

The Governments across the world are committing huge sum of money as relief measures for the distressed health sector. With lock-downs implemented in most parts of the world the global economy is under huge threat due to lack of economic activities. Some countries are forced to use their reserves or divert their funds from other sectors to meet the emergencies arising therein. Countries are trying to find a trade-off between 'जीवन' (Life) and 'जीविका' (Livelihood) and life is getting the obvious favor. International Monitory Fund (IMF) have already declared a recession.

Nations are also facing acute personnel crisis due to huge deployment of police and even military to enforce the lock-down and curfews. The pandemic has also impacted the militaries all over the world with India reporting few cases in their regular and paramilitary forces as well as in defense medical staffs. It is also reported that the US Navy Aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt has been deserted following Corona outbreak within the vessel that infected around 160 sailors.This ship has an unlimited range thanks to its twin nuclear reactors and displacement of over 100,000 tons.

It is often said that the Aircraft Carriers of US are the pride of the nation as they help in ensuring and asserting its supremacy all over the planet and temporary desertion of a ship that important is a big blow for the country nonetheless. The Italian military is also deployed in the cremation and funeral activities of the civilian population. The Russian defense industry is also worried about the current contracts as its biggest market India is reeling under huge subsidy burden.

The country from where all these things started China is also seeing a new wave of infections. China has also stopped engaging with its allies like Pakistan and North Korea as no one wants to risk their personnel’s lives in these situations.

Pic Credit:  Kaylianna Genier / DVIDS .  USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71)

 The Dangers

As the countries are busy fighting the pandemic this presents a great opportunity for the enemies of the state to regroup and launch attacks. In a recent event the Maoists have killed around 20 STF jawans in Chhattisgarh India. It is also noticed that terrorist activities are picking up in J&K and encounters between army and terrorist have once again started. It is also believed that Pakistan is relocating its COVID-19 positive cases to parts of Gilgit-Baltistan closer to the India border to create a panic among the BSF posted in that range.

DRDO has meanwhile engaged itself in the manufacturing of Ventilators and Sanitizers while the Air-force has started creating temporary isolation facilities in some of its airfields. With defense projects already behind schedules there is an increased possibility that these projects are going to be deferred even further as saving lives takes the Center Stage. With lock-down hardly obeyed by the citizens the Government will find it imperative to call in army and impose curfew all over India. India has already delayed testing of long-range version of Brahmos Supersonic missile. This can present an ideal opportunity for external forces to hurt India and can forge an alliance with the insurgents acting inside Indian territories.

With demand for fuel declining global oil prices has reached the rock bottom and future seems not that bright either as Russia and Saudi Arabia disagreeing on the minimum support price. The oil based Saudi economy is reeling under huge pressure as its biggest company Aramco has lost a lot of market valuation recently. It is now feared that the economic stress on the US and its allies may make them loosen their grip on the ISIS and the group may once again gain strength.

Ambiguity regarding origin of the virus: The source of the virus is still not confirmed although many believe that the Wuhan Wet Market was the source. However many also believe that this is a Biochemical weapon which was leaked accidentally. The World Health Organization (WHO) though believe that the virus has spread from animals to human. The transmission and contagious nature of the virus can make it a very useful weapon for any army across the world to inflict severe casualties on their enemies without shredding blood. It is very difficult to estimate the kind of impact this can do if terrorist organizations get the access.

Fighting the enemies within: In a recent turn of events people belonging to Tablighi Jamaat has openly violated Government lock-down rules and started abusing the medical staffs and further threatening to spread the virus throughout the country. India’s recent spike in cases is mostly attributed to the people of this group.

Preventive measures

Government needs to keep a strict vigil on the situations arising both internally and externally. While tackling the internal situation Government needs to keep Army away from curfew related duties and rather use paramilitaries. We should not push our defense needs in the back-burner as we need to save lives from external enemies as well. We need to be extra cautious regarding the Kashmir situation as insurgencies may spike and the peace may be disrupted. We need to be careful even from China as they have all the time in the world to create Dokhlam like situation once more as they have already come out successfully from the pandemic crisis. 

Although through Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) which came into effect from 1975 members of United Nation are legally bound to keep away from using Biological weapons we cannot trust our enemies. India needs to build hangers and Nuclear cum Biochemical attack proof facilities to keep their military and civilians safe if such need arises in future. There is a real threat ahead of us and we need to keep ourselves ready as a single mistake in any front can prove expensive.

 

*The Author is a Software Developer by profession and a passionate watcher of Indian Defense Space. He also takes deep interest involving foreign affairs, economy and politics.